WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
25-22-7 | Road
4
DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
32-17-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
John Gibson
#36 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.77 | 0.857 | -- |
| John Gibson | None-None | 2.85 | 0.870 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.77 Ldr
GAA
2.85
0.857
Save %
Ldr 0.870
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
RED WINGS
0%
CAPITALS
--
RED WINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
9.3%
DET By 1 goal
19.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Wings
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Wings (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Red Wings (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
WSH @ DET
4 - 3
Dec 21, 2025
WSH @ DET
2 - 3
Dec 20, 2025
DET @ WSH
5 - 2
Mar 18, 2025
DET @ WSH
1 - 4
Mar 7, 2025
DET @ WSH
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+31.5% more
Detroit: 5.2
vs
Washington: 4.0
Shots on Goal (L5)
+14.1% more
Detroit: 30.4
vs
Washington: 26.7
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.8%
Detroit: 58.7%
vs
Washington: 51.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+12.9% more
Washington: 17.3
vs
Detroit: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
4
DET Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 17.3
15.0 / 21.0
Faceoff %
58.7 / 51.9
46.0 / 54.0
Hits
15.5 / 15.6
13.0 / 26.0
Power Play %
1362.0 / 2144.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
30.4 / 26.7
21.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 4.0
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
WSH
DET
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
TTL
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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