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WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

21-24-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Thu, Jan 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

33-14-4  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 3.08 0.917 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 1.01 0.958 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
3.08 GAA Ldr 1.01
0.917 Save % Ldr 0.958
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
JETS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
JetsWPG (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

WPG By 1 goal

12.1%

WPG By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
WINNIPEG
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
WINNIPEG
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TB @ WPG 1 - 4
Jan 29, 2026 WPG @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 14, 2024 WPG @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 3, 2024 TB @ WPG 4 - 7
Jan 2, 2024 TB @ WPG 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +23.6%
Tampa Bay: 32.8% vs Winnipeg: 9.2%
Shots on Goal (L5) +16.9% more
Tampa Bay: 28.6 vs Winnipeg: 24.5
Hits (L5) +18.4% more
Winnipeg: 22.2 vs Tampa Bay: 18.1
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.9% more
Winnipeg: 16.4 vs Tampa Bay: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WPG Score 2.0 1
TB Score 3.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.8 / 16.4 9.0 / 13.0
Faceoff % 50.5 / 49.0 52.5 / 47.5
Hits 18.1 / 22.2 18.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 3281.0 / 924.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.6 / 24.5 37.0 / 23.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 3.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
79%MONEY21%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WPG
TB
WPG
ML
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
100% 4-0
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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