DALLAS
STARSDAL
30-14-9 | Road
5
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
25-14-13 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.69 | 0.810 | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 3.75 | 0.852 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.69 Ldr
GAA
3.75
0.810
Save %
Ldr 0.852
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
STARS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
VGK @ DAL
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
VGK @ DAL
1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026
DAL @ VGK
5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025
DAL @ VGK
4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025
VGK @ DAL
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+59.5% more
Vegas: 21.2
vs
Dallas: 13.3
Takeaways (L5)
+29.4% more
Vegas: 5.8
vs
Dallas: 4.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+19.6% more
Vegas: 29.4
vs
Dallas: 24.6
Power Play % (L5)
+32.8%
Dallas: 40.4%
vs
Vegas: 7.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
3.0
5
VGK Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
14.9 / 16.0
11.0 / 23.0
Faceoff %
50.8 / 54.2
50.8 / 49.2
Hits
21.2 / 13.3
26.0 / 29.0
Power Play %
755.0 / 4036.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
29.4 / 24.6
21.0 / 27.0
Takeaways
5.8 / 4.5
1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
DAL
VGK
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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