CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
19-28 | Road
112
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
18-26 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
GRIZZLIES
0%
HORNETS
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Memphis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MEM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)
CHA By 1-7 points
18.6%
CHA By 8-14 points
8.0%
MEM By 1-7 points
27.2%
MEM By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Memphis
123
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Charlotte
107
CHARLOTTE
Memphis
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Grizzlies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o230.5
Loss
Proj Total: 241.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MEM @ CHA
101 - 124
Jan 28, 2026
CHA @ MEM
112 - 97
Oct 15, 2025
MEM @ CHA
116 - 145
Apr 8, 2025
MEM @ CHA
124 - 100
Jan 22, 2025
CHA @ MEM
120 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+80.4% more
Memphis: 6.7
vs
Charlotte: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
Memphis: 82.9%
vs
Charlotte: 76.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Charlotte: 19.0
vs
Memphis: 15.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.5%
Charlotte: 51.6%
vs
Memphis: 44.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
118.0
112
MEM Score
123.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.9 / 38.2
35.0 / 40.0
Assists
28.7 / 29.6
27.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.7 / 3.7
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.1 / 51.6
46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
82.9 / 76.6
75.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
47.5 / 49.3
29.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.3 / 7.6
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 19.0
13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
MEM
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
CHA
MEM
CHA
ML
57%
59-44
61%
60-39
50%
41-41
48%
40-44
ATS
63%
65-38
60%
59-40
50%
41-41
48%
40-44
TTL
70%
71-31-1
58%
57-42
100%
82-0
100%
84-0
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