CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
23-23 | Road
110
INDIANA
PACERSIND
11-36 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
PACERS
100%
BULLS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHI -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
CHI By 1-7 points
26.2%
CHI By 8-14 points
25.3%
IND By 1-7 points
15.3%
IND By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
117
CHICAGO
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Chicago
115
CHICAGO
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulls (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
IND @ CHI
145 - 126
Jan 28, 2026
CHI @ IND
110 - 113
Dec 5, 2025
IND @ CHI
120 - 105
Nov 29, 2025
CHI @ IND
101 - 103
Mar 10, 2025
IND @ CHI
103 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Chicago: 80.1%
vs
Indiana: 71.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.7%
Chicago: 41.9%
vs
Indiana: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.8%
Chicago: 50.5%
vs
Indiana: 44.7%
Steals (L5)
+36.5% more
Indiana: 7.9
vs
Chicago: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
117.0
110
IND Score
110.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.2 / 41.9
42.0 / 40.0
Assists
30.2 / 32.1
30.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.6 / 3.8
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 50.5
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
71.3 / 80.1
88.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
44.6 / 42.2
43.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.9 / 5.8
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 12.2
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHI
IND
CHI
ML
48%
47-50
56%
54-42
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
ATS
59%
57-40
65%
62-33-1
54%
45-38
57%
46-35
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
56-40
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
Luka Doncic Embraces Lakers Legacy: 'It's an Honor, Not Pressure…
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up