Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Raptors NY @ TOR

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

28-18  |  Road

119
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

29-19  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
📊
RAPTORS
100%
KNICKS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New York)
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

84.1%

Raptors Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

NY By 1-7 points

23.0%

NY By 8-14 points

27.2%

TOR By 1-7 points

10.7%

TOR By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
126
NEW YORK
116
TORONTO
Simulated Score
108
NEW YORK
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knicks (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o218.5 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u218.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 TOR @ NY 95 - 112
Mar 3, 2026 NY @ TOR 111 - 95
Jan 28, 2026 NY @ TOR 119 - 92
Dec 9, 2025 NY @ TOR 117 - 101
Nov 30, 2025 TOR @ NY 94 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
New York: 15.7 vs Toronto: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
New York: 38.1% vs Toronto: 35.8%
Blocks (L5) +54.6% more
Toronto: 5.7 vs New York: 3.7
Assists (L5) +19.6% more
Toronto: 30.1 vs New York: 25.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 126.0 119
TOR Score 116.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 38.1 27.0 / 37.0
Assists 30.1 / 25.1 20.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.7 / 3.7 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 46.4 38.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 74.5 / 73.7 86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 46.1 / 48.8 43.0 / 48.0
Steals 8.5 / 9.0 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 15.7 20.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
NY
TOR
NY
ML
55% 57-47
61% 114-72
55% 48-39
56% 57-45
ATS
61% 62-40-2
67% 124-62
55% 48-39
56% 57-45
TTL
60% 62-42
72% 133-53
100% 87-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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