ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
23-25 | Road
117
BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
29-17 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
CELTICS
0%
HAWKS
--
CELTICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
12.2%
BOS By 1-7 points
26.8%
BOS By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
120
ATLANTA
Boston
122
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Boston
108
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Celtics
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Celtics (+5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
BOS @ ATL
102 - 112
Mar 27, 2026
ATL @ BOS
102 - 109
Jan 28, 2026
ATL @ BOS
117 - 106
Jan 17, 2026
BOS @ ATL
132 - 106
Jan 18, 2025
ATL @ BOS
119 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+19.3% more
Atlanta: 5.9
vs
Boston: 4.8
Assists (L5)
+18.9% more
Atlanta: 31.8
vs
Boston: 25.8
Turnovers (L5)
+18.0% more
Atlanta: 15.4
vs
Boston: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.3%
Atlanta: 81.1%
vs
Boston: 74.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
120.0
117
BOS Score
122.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 41.1
26.0 / 43.0
Assists
25.8 / 31.8
21.0 / 29.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.4 / 47.9
47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 81.1
81.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
43.2 / 45.6
51.0 / 38.0
Steals
9.3 / 9.1
3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.4
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATL
BOS
ATL
ML
57%
61-46
50%
52-52
53%
47-41
55%
48-40
ATS
59%
61-43-3
53%
55-48-1
53%
47-41
55%
48-40
TTL
56%
60-47
53%
55-48-1
100%
88-0
100%
88-0
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