ORLANDO
MAGICORL
23-22 | Road
133
MIAMI
HEATMIA
25-22 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
100%
HEAT
0%
MAGIC
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
ORL By 1-7 points
24.3%
ORL By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIA By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
121
ORLANDO
Miami
122
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Orlando
106
ORLANDO
Miami
115
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Win
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
ORL @ MIA
121 - 117
Jan 28, 2026
ORL @ MIA
133 - 124
Dec 9, 2025
MIA @ ORL
108 - 117
Dec 5, 2025
MIA @ ORL
105 - 106
Oct 22, 2025
MIA @ ORL
121 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+33.9% more
Miami: 53.8
vs
Orlando: 40.2
Assists (L5)
+17.1% more
Miami: 27.7
vs
Orlando: 23.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Miami: 43.7%
vs
Orlando: 42.1%
Blocks (L5)
+22.9% more
Orlando: 4.8
vs
Miami: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
121.0
133
MIA Score
122.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 31.0
44.0 / 42.0
Assists
27.7 / 23.7
27.0 / 36.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.8
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 42.1
50.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
79.2 / 81.2
91.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
53.8 / 40.2
48.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.0 / 8.4
6.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 14.1
18.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
Advantage
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ORL
MIA
ORL
ML
48%
46-50
61%
65-42
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
ATS
51%
49-47
64%
68-38-1
59%
48-34
56%
51-40
TTL
59%
57-39
57%
61-46
100%
82-0
100%
91-0
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