AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
13-6 | Road
90
EASTERN KENTUCKY
COLONELSEKU
7-14 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
COLONELS
0%
GOVERNORS
--
COLONELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Eastern Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EKU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EKU)
APSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
APSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
EKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
EKU By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
62
AUSTIN PEAY
Eastern Kentucky
71
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
70
AUSTIN PEAY
Eastern Kentucky
75
EASTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Colonels
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Colonels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Colonels (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Colonels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
APSU @ EKU
90 - 82
Jan 15, 2026
EKU @ APSU
72 - 74
Feb 1, 2025
APSU @ EKU
82 - 88
Jan 16, 2025
EKU @ APSU
90 - 97
Feb 28, 2024
EKU @ APSU
79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.4% more
Eastern Kentucky: 12.9
vs
Austin Peay: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
Eastern Kentucky: 40.7%
vs
Austin Peay: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Eastern Kentucky: 49.0%
vs
Austin Peay: 46.0%
Steals (L5)
+39.1% more
Austin Peay: 10.0
vs
Eastern Kentucky: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
62.0
90
EKU Score
71.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 33.0
27.0 / 47.0
Assists
14.0 / 15.3
12.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.5 / 2.1
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 46.0
35.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
64.0 / 73.5
89.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 36.1
38.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.1 / 10.0
10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 10.4
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
EKU
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
EKU
10-19-1
(34.5%)
Margin: -1.6
ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
EKU
19-11-0
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EKU
APSU
EKU
APSU
ML
44%
14-18
53%
16-14
69%
22-10
59%
16-11
ATS
56%
18-14
57%
17-13
69%
22-10
59%
16-11
TTL
53%
17-15
57%
17-13
100%
32-0
100%
27-0