Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beavers @ Lions ORST @ LMU

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

10-12  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 10:00 PM ET
Gersten Pavilion
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT

LIONSLMU

11-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
0%
📊
LIONS
100%
BEAVERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Oregon State)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 LionsLMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

91.9%

Lions Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ORST -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-7 points

16.9%

ORST By 8-14 points

26.2%

LMU By 1-7 points

5.8%

LMU By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
87
OREGON STATE
73
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Simulated Score
66
OREGON STATE
72
LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Beavers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Beavers (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 ORST @ LMU 72 - 69
Jan 14, 2026 LMU @ ORST 70 - 76
Jan 2, 2025 ORST @ LMU 61 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +12.4% more
Oregon State: 5.3 vs Loyola Marymount: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Oregon State: 80.2% vs Loyola Marymount: 73.3%
Turnovers (L5) +63.4% more
Loyola Marymount: 15.8 vs Oregon State: 9.6
Assists (L5) +32.0% more
Loyola Marymount: 12.1 vs Oregon State: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 87.0 72
LMU Score 73.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 24.7 35.0 / 41.0
Assists 12.1 / 9.1 20.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 36.7 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 80.2 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 34.3 / 29.1 27.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.6 / 5.3 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 9.6 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
LMU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
LMU
14-17-0 (45.2%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
LMU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LMU
ORST
LMU
ORST
ML
53% 17-15
45% 15-18
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
ATS
47% 15-17
48% 16-17
50% 16-16
59% 19-13
TTL
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 14 hours ago
Northwestern Opens Ryan Field with Record-Breaking Debut Against…
si 6 days, 2 hours ago
Lions Edge Jets 31-24: Gibbs' Hat Trick, TeSlaa's Breakout, and …
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Lions' Draft Radar: Five College Standouts to Watch in Week 4
si 1 week, 5 days ago
Lions Edge Saints in Overtime Thriller: Winners and Losers from …
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago