Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Red Storm BUT @ SJU

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

13-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

ST. JOHN'S

RED STORMSJU

15-5  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
RED STORM
0%
BULLDOGS --
RED STORM --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (St. John's)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 Red StormSJU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Red Storm Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)

BUT By 1-7 points

0.0%

BUT By 8-14 points

0.0%

SJU By 1-7 points

0.0%

SJU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
46
BUTLER
87
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
74
BUTLER
78
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Storm Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Storm Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Storm (-13) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Red Storm (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.0 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u159.0 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 BUT @ SJU 70 - 92
Jan 6, 2026 SJU @ BUT 84 - 70
Mar 13, 2025 BUT @ SJU 57 - 78
Feb 26, 2025 SJU @ BUT 76 - 70
Jan 4, 2025 BUT @ SJU 62 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.0% more
St. John's: 3.3 vs Butler: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +15.0% more
St. John's: 38.0 vs Butler: 33.0
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Butler: 11.7 vs St. John's: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5) +5.4%
Butler: 75.5% vs St. John's: 70.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 46.0 70
SJU Score 87.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 33.8 45.0 / 44.0
Assists 15.9 / 15.8 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.6 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 49.4 56.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 75.5 79.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 33.0 41.0 / 31.0
Steals 8.2 / 8.0 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 11.7 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SJU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
SJU Advantage
22-13-1 (62.9%)
Margin: 11.3 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
BUT
SJU
BUT
ML
62% 18-11
62% 20-12
62% 18-11
65% 20-11
ATS
66% 19-10
56% 18-14
62% 18-11
65% 20-11
TTL
59% 17-12
50% 16-16
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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