Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Greyhounds AMER @ L-MD

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

13-8  |  Road

68
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Reitz Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYLAND

GREYHOUNDSL-MD

7-14  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
GREYHOUNDS
0%
EAGLES --
GREYHOUNDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Loyola Maryland)
EaglesAMER (-3.5) 0 GreyhoundsL-MD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

9.7%

Greyhounds Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around L-MD -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (L-MD)

AMER By 1-7 points

6.8%

AMER By 8-14 points

1.7%

L-MD By 1-7 points

18.6%

L-MD By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
91
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Simulated Score
68
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
73
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Greyhounds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Greyhounds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Greyhounds (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Greyhounds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 AMER @ L-MD 68 - 77
Dec 31, 2025 L-MD @ AMER 69 - 84
Feb 15, 2025 L-MD @ AMER 51 - 72
Jan 13, 2025 AMER @ L-MD 73 - 54
Feb 7, 2024 L-MD @ AMER 44 - 43
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +96.8% more
Loyola Maryland: 4.3 vs American University: 2.2
Steals (L5) +30.1% more
American University: 7.1 vs Loyola Maryland: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.9%
American University: 80.6% vs Loyola Maryland: 74.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
American University: 47.6% vs Loyola Maryland: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AMER Score 78.0 68
L-MD Score 91.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 32.7 33.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.8 / 12.7 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.3 / 2.2 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 47.6 40.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 80.6 83.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 33.2 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.9 / 7.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.3 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AMER Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
L-MD
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
L-MD
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
L-MD
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
L-MD
AMER
L-MD
AMER
ML
53% 17-15
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
62% 20-12
TTL
44% 14-18
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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