SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
9-13 | Road
92
PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
6-16 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
100%
WAVES
0%
TOREROS
--
WAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Pepperdine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PEPP -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)
USD By 1-7 points
2.7%
USD By 8-14 points
0.5%
PEPP By 1-7 points
10.7%
PEPP By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
69
SAN DIEGO
Pepperdine
87
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
San Diego
72
SAN DIEGO
Pepperdine
75
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Waves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Waves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Waves (+2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Waves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o151.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
USD @ PEPP
92 - 88
Jan 8, 2026
PEPP @ USD
63 - 83
Feb 13, 2025
USD @ PEPP
81 - 88
Jan 30, 2025
PEPP @ USD
98 - 90
Mar 8, 2024
PEPP @ USD
52 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+14.5% more
Pepperdine: 13.7
vs
San Diego: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.1%
Pepperdine: 80.8%
vs
San Diego: 72.7%
Assists (L5)
+38.1% more
San Diego: 18.0
vs
Pepperdine: 11.1
Blocks (L5)
+32.2% more
San Diego: 2.6
vs
Pepperdine: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
69.0
92
PEPP Score
87.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.0 / 33.5
33.0 / 34.0
Assists
11.1 / 18.0
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.8 / 2.6
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 45.8
41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.8 / 72.7
69.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
29.9 / 36.7
40.0 / 44.0
Steals
6.5 / 9.0
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.0
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
USD
PEPP
USD
ML
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
69%
22-10
70%
23-10
ATS
56%
18-14
55%
18-15
69%
22-10
70%
23-10
TTL
50%
16-16
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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