MARSHALL
THUNDERING HERDMRSH
13-7 | Road
68
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
11-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDERING HERD
0%
BOBCATS
100%
THUNDERING HERD
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Marshall)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRSH -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)
MRSH By 1-7 points
5.8%
MRSH By 8-14 points
15.3%
TXST By 1-7 points
1.1%
TXST By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Marshall
84
MARSHALL
Texas State
62
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Marshall
70
MARSHALL
Texas State
75
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thundering Herd
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Thundering Herd (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
MRSH @ TXST
68 - 72
Jan 2, 2025
TXST @ MRSH
71 - 77
Jan 6, 2024
MRSH @ TXST
79 - 75
Mar 4, 2023
TXST @ MRSH
71 - 68
Jan 19, 2023
MRSH @ TXST
81 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+77.1% more
Marshall: 7.1
vs
Texas State: 1.6
Assists (L5)
+52.2% more
Marshall: 18.6
vs
Texas State: 8.9
Rebounding (L5)
+23.4% more
Marshall: 43.4
vs
Texas State: 33.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+15.6%
Marshall: 41.6%
vs
Texas State: 25.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score
84.0
68
TXST Score
62.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.9 / 41.6
47.0 / 23.0
Assists
8.9 / 18.6
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
1.6 / 7.1
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 46.9
45.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
76.2 / 73.7
68.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 43.4
41.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.5 / 5.5
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 11.7
13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TXST
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
10-20-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
MRSH
TXST
MRSH
ML
42%
13-18
70%
21-9
83%
25-5
62%
18-11
ATS
48%
15-16
70%
21-9
84%
26-5
62%
18-11
TTL
65%
20-11
50%
15-15
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
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