Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Bulldogs EVAN @ DRKE

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

5-15  |  Road

78
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Knapp Center
View Odds Details →

DRAKE

BULLDOGSDRKE

11-10  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
DRAKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Drake)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsDRKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

4.5%

Bulldogs Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DRKE -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DRKE)

EVAN By 1-7 points

3.3%

EVAN By 8-14 points

0.6%

DRKE By 1-7 points

12.2%

DRKE By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
67
EVANSVILLE
84
DRAKE
Simulated Score
65
EVANSVILLE
78
DRAKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 EVAN @ DRKE 78 - 82
Dec 21, 2025 DRKE @ EVAN 66 - 65
Feb 26, 2025 DRKE @ EVAN 65 - 61
Jan 11, 2025 EVAN @ DRKE 40 - 63
Mar 8, 2024 EVAN @ DRKE 58 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +45.8% more
Drake: 7.8 vs Evansville: 5.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.2% more
Drake: 38.6 vs Evansville: 33.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Drake: 33.5% vs Evansville: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Drake: 43.7% vs Evansville: 41.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 67.0 78
DRKE Score 84.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 29.7 31.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.1 / 14.0 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 41.4 43.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 80.1 74.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 33.0 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.4 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 16.5 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
DRKE Advantage
14-20-0 (41.2%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
DRKE
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
DRKE
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DRKE
EVAN
DRKE
EVAN
ML
59% 20-14
56% 18-14
38% 13-21
62% 20-12
ATS
85% 29-5
66% 21-11
38% 13-21
62% 20-12
TTL
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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