Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Dukes SBU @ DUQ

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

12-8  |  Road

87
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

DUQUESNE

DUKESDUQ

11-9  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
📊
DUKES
100%
BONNIES --
DUKES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 DukesDUQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

69.1%

Dukes Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)

SBU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SBU By 8-14 points

23.0%

DUQ By 1-7 points

18.6%

DUQ By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
ST. BONAVENTURE
65
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
71
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bonnies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dukes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bonnies (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Dukes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 DUQ @ SBU 78 - 73
Jan 28, 2026 SBU @ DUQ 87 - 79
Mar 13, 2025 DUQ @ SBU 59 - 64
Feb 22, 2025 DUQ @ SBU 63 - 70
Jan 18, 2025 SBU @ DUQ 57 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
St. Bonaventure: 75.1% vs Duquesne: 71.4%
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Duquesne: 12.1 vs St. Bonaventure: 9.2
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Duquesne: 8.4 vs St. Bonaventure: 7.4
Rebounding (L5) +13.1% more
Duquesne: 36.3 vs St. Bonaventure: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 70.0 87
DUQ Score 65.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.4 / 31.7 41.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.1 / 15.6 18.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.3 / 4.5 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 41.4 44.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 75.1 55.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 32.1 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.4 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.2 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DUQ Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DUQ Advantage
14-16-1 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
SBU
DUQ
SBU
ML
53% 17-15
59% 20-14
58% 18-13
61% 20-13
ATS
69% 22-10
50% 17-17
58% 18-13
61% 20-13
TTL
50% 16-16
38% 13-21
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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