SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
10-11 | Road
71
OMAHA
MAVERICKSOMA
10-12 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
JACKRABBITS
100%
MAVERICKS
0%
JACKRABBITS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
OMAHA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Omaha)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OMA -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OMA)
SDST By 1-7 points
0.0%
SDST By 8-14 points
0.0%
OMA By 1-7 points
0.1%
OMA By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
South Dakota State
62
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Omaha
99
OMAHA
Simulated Score
South Dakota State
75
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Omaha
68
OMAHA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
SDST @ OMA
71 - 80
Jan 1, 2026
OMA @ SDST
69 - 84
Feb 13, 2025
OMA @ SDST
85 - 98
Jan 11, 2025
SDST @ OMA
80 - 87
Feb 17, 2024
SDST @ OMA
85 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
Omaha: 13.4
vs
South Dakota State: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.1%
Omaha: 68.1%
vs
South Dakota State: 60.0%
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
South Dakota State: 16.2
vs
Omaha: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+13.7% more
South Dakota State: 2.8
vs
Omaha: 2.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SDST Score
62.0
71
OMA Score
99.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 35.1
25.0 / 19.0
Assists
12.4 / 16.2
11.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.4 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 50.1
47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 60.0
82.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
36.2 / 35.2
35.0 / 39.0
Steals
7.0 / 7.6
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.1
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
OMA
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
OMA
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OMA
SDST
OMA
SDST
ML
79%
26-7
75%
24-8
67%
22-11
53%
17-15
ATS
76%
25-8
78%
25-7
67%
22-11
53%
17-15
TTL
73%
24-9
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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