NORTHERN IOWA
PANTHERSUNI
13-8 | Road
50
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
8-12 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
SALUKIS
100%
PANTHERS
--
SALUKIS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Northern Iowa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)
UNI By 1-7 points
0.5%
UNI By 8-14 points
2.7%
SIU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SIU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Iowa
84
NORTHERN IOWA
Southern Illinois
51
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Northern Iowa
66
NORTHERN IOWA
Southern Illinois
70
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Salukis
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim
Salukis (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o130.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u130.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SIU @ UNI
59 - 57
Jan 28, 2026
UNI @ SIU
50 - 65
Jan 18, 2025
UNI @ SIU
49 - 73
Dec 29, 2024
SIU @ UNI
67 - 78
Mar 3, 2024
UNI @ SIU
82 - 70
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Northern Iowa: 30.4%
vs
Southern Illinois: 26.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Northern Iowa: 44.2%
vs
Southern Illinois: 40.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+40.3% more
Southern Illinois: 11.8
vs
Northern Iowa: 8.4
Blocks (L5)
+38.9% more
Southern Illinois: 3.2
vs
Northern Iowa: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNI Score
84.0
50
SIU Score
51.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.2 / 30.4
40.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.2 / 10.1
15.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 44.2
47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
66.4 / 62.7
47.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 32.2
36.0 / 29.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.0
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 8.4
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
Advantage
23-13-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
SIU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 7.7
ATS +/-: +2.4
SIU
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -4.7
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
UNI
SIU
UNI
ML
53%
17-15
51%
18-17
47%
15-17
56%
19-15
ATS
56%
18-14
49%
17-18
47%
15-17
56%
19-15
TTL
53%
17-15
69%
24-11
100%
32-0
100%
34-0
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