Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Delta Devils @ Jaguars MVSU @ SOU

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

1-19  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 2:00 PM ET
F.G. Clark Activity Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

7-12  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
DELTA DEVILS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Southern)
Delta DevilsMVSU (-3.5) 0 JaguarsSOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delta Devils Cover

0.1%

Jaguars Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SOU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SOU)

MVSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

MVSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

SOU By 1-7 points

0.6%

SOU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
97
SOUTHERN
Simulated Score
58
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
77
SOUTHERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 MVSU @ SOU 69 - 80
Jan 27, 2025 SOU @ MVSU 63 - 42
Jan 29, 2024 MVSU @ SOU 54 - 78
Jan 23, 2023 SOU @ MVSU 84 - 70
Jan 24, 2022 MVSU @ SOU 72 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +97.2% more
Southern: 3.6 vs Mississippi Valley State: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +36.2% more
Southern: 36.7 vs Mississippi Valley State: 27.0
Steals (L5) +30.5% more
Southern: 11.7 vs Mississippi Valley State: 9.0
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Southern: 13.5 vs Mississippi Valley State: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score 65.0 69
SOU Score 97.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 27.9 17.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.5 / 10.9 13.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.8 9.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.5 / 36.5 51.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 63.9 83.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 27.0 33.0 / 34.0
Steals 11.7 / 9.0 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.6 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SOU
MVSU
SOU
MVSU
ML
67% 22-11
91% 30-3
70% 21-9
75% 18-6
ATS
64% 21-12
82% 27-6
70% 21-9
75% 18-6
TTL
42% 14-19
58% 19-14
100% 30-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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