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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

14-7  |  Road

70
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 9:00 PM ET
CFSB Center
View Odds Details →

MURRAY STATE

RACERSMUR

16-5  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
📊
RACERS
0%
REDBIRDS --
RACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
115.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Murray State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 RacersMUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

24.2%

Racers Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)

ILST By 1-7 points

15.3%

ILST By 8-14 points

5.8%

MUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

MUR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
ILLINOIS STATE
61
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
72
ILLINOIS STATE
78
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Racers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Racers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Racers (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Racers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 115.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 18, 2026 MUR @ ILST 61 - 78
Jan 28, 2026 ILST @ MUR 70 - 65
Jan 2, 2025 ILST @ MUR 74 - 68
Jan 30, 2024 ILST @ MUR 61 - 59
Dec 3, 2023 MUR @ ILST 72 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +78.5% more
Murray State: 4.9 vs Illinois State: 2.7
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Murray State: 45.2% vs Illinois State: 42.6%
Turnovers (L5) +18.1% more
Illinois State: 12.7 vs Murray State: 10.4
Steals (L5) +15.1% more
Illinois State: 6.3 vs Murray State: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 54.0 70
MUR Score 61.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 32.7 18.0 / 38.0
Assists 11.8 / 11.8 8.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 42.6 38.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 77.5 / 80.4 88.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.7 / 37.6 33.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.3 / 6.3 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.7 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
MUR
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
MUR
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
ILST
MUR
ILST
ML
58% 19-14
42% 15-21
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
ATS
52% 17-16
58% 21-15
61% 20-13
71% 24-10
TTL
70% 23-10
58% 21-15
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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