Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Monarchs @ Red Wolves ODU @ ARST

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

6-15  |  Road

75
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 8:00 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

13-8  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
📊
RED WOLVES
0%
MONARCHS --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Arkansas State)
MonarchsODU (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monarchs Cover

0.0%

Red Wolves Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ODU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ODU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARST By 1-7 points

0.1%

ARST By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
OLD DOMINION
93
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
70
OLD DOMINION
74
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 ODU @ ARST 75 - 71
Jan 2, 2025 ARST @ ODU 78 - 59
Jan 6, 2024 ODU @ ARST 75 - 90
Dec 29, 2022 ARST @ ODU 60 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +46.5% more
Arkansas State: 16.9 vs Old Dominion: 11.5
Turnovers (L5) +36.4% more
Arkansas State: 14.5 vs Old Dominion: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +14.7% more
Arkansas State: 2.3 vs Old Dominion: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
Arkansas State: 39.8 vs Old Dominion: 35.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 56.0 75
ARST Score 93.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 33.1 33.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.9 / 11.5 16.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.3 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 45.1 42.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 66.5 65.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 35.3 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.6 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.6 15.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
ODU
ARST
ODU
ML
48% 15-16
52% 17-16
53% 16-14
67% 22-11
ATS
58% 18-13
70% 23-10
53% 16-14
67% 22-11
TTL
61% 19-12
70% 23-10
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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