COLORADO STATE
RAMSCSU
12-8 | Road
50
SAN DIEGO STATE
AZTECSSDSU
14-5 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
AZTECS
100%
RAMS
--
AZTECS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)
CSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
CSU By 8-14 points
25.3%
SDSU By 1-7 points
15.3%
SDSU By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado State
64
COLORADO STATE
San Diego State
57
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
Colorado State
68
COLORADO STATE
San Diego State
71
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rams
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aztecs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aztecs (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Aztecs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
CSU @ SDSU
62 - 71
Feb 21, 2026
SDSU @ CSU
74 - 83
Jan 28, 2026
CSU @ SDSU
50 - 73
Feb 8, 2025
SDSU @ CSU
63 - 68
Jan 14, 2025
CSU @ SDSU
60 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.0% more
Colorado State: 14.3
vs
San Diego State: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Colorado State: 43.5%
vs
San Diego State: 40.7%
Blocks (L5)
+99.5% more
San Diego State: 3.8
vs
Colorado State: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+46.0% more
San Diego State: 8.9
vs
Colorado State: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSU Score
64.0
50
SDSU Score
57.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 43.5
46.0 / 27.0
Assists
14.8 / 14.7
10.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.9
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.4 / 49.2
54.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 73.5
76.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
33.7 / 31.7
32.0 / 24.0
Steals
8.9 / 6.1
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.2 / 14.3
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -0.2
SDSU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.7
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
CSU
SDSU
CSU
ML
62%
20-12
56%
19-15
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
ATS
69%
22-10
62%
21-13
72%
23-9
65%
20-11
TTL
75%
24-8
56%
19-15
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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