DAVIDSON
WILDCATSDAV
12-7 | Road
52
GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
18-2 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
PATRIOTS
100%
WILDCATS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Davidson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAV -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)
DAV By 1-7 points
0.1%
DAV By 8-14 points
1.1%
GMU By 1-7 points
0.0%
GMU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Davidson
79
DAVIDSON
George Mason
42
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
Davidson
70
DAVIDSON
George Mason
75
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u135.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
DAV @ GMU
52 - 60
Feb 1, 2025
GMU @ DAV
64 - 60
Dec 31, 2024
DAV @ GMU
57 - 69
Feb 10, 2024
GMU @ DAV
57 - 55
Jan 14, 2023
DAV @ GMU
65 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.8% more
Davidson: 4.8
vs
George Mason: 2.6
Steals (L5)
+43.6% more
Davidson: 7.3
vs
George Mason: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Davidson: 33.2%
vs
George Mason: 30.3%
Assists (L5)
+20.6% more
George Mason: 12.7
vs
Davidson: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAV Score
79.0
52
GMU Score
42.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.3 / 33.2
28.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.7 / 10.5
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.6 / 4.8
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 45.0
45.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 60.4
59.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 30.2
36.0 / 30.0
Steals
4.1 / 7.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 9.8
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAV
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAV
13-17-2
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
GMU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.6
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
DAV
GMU
DAV
ML
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
73%
24-9
58%
19-14
ATS
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
73%
24-9
58%
19-14
TTL
58%
19-14
52%
17-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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