Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Golden Hurricane UNT @ TLSA

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

12-8  |  Road

66
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Reynolds Center
View Odds Details →

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

17-3  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
0%
📊
GOLDEN HURRICANE
100%
MEAN GREEN --
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (North Texas)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 Golden HurricaneTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

81.6%

Golden Hurricane Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNT -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNT By 8-14 points

26.8%

TLSA By 1-7 points

12.2%

TLSA By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
92
NORTH TEXAS
83
TULSA
Simulated Score
70
NORTH TEXAS
64
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mean Green Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mean Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mean Green (-8.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Mean Green (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u140.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 84 - 90
Jan 28, 2026 UNT @ TLSA 66 - 82
Jan 4, 2026 TLSA @ UNT 67 - 72
Mar 14, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 59 - 77
Feb 19, 2025 TLSA @ UNT 44 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
North Texas: 3.4 vs Tulsa: 2.0
Steals (L5) +29.1% more
North Texas: 10.0 vs Tulsa: 7.1
Turnovers (L5) +10.1% more
North Texas: 11.1 vs Tulsa: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +14.6%
Tulsa: 82.7% vs North Texas: 68.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 92.0 66
TLSA Score 83.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 29.3 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.1 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.0 / 3.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 39.9 51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 82.7 / 68.1 86.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 35.7 39.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.1 / 10.0 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 11.1 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
UNT
TLSA
UNT
ML
66% 25-13
70% 23-10
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
ATS
74% 28-10
52% 17-16
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
TTL
58% 22-16
67% 22-11
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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