BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
11-8 | Road
57
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
10-10 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
BEARCATS
0%
BEARS
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
BAY By 1-7 points
12.2%
BAY By 8-14 points
4.0%
CIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CIN By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
77
BAYLOR
Cincinnati
86
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Baylor
74
BAYLOR
Cincinnati
70
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bears
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Bears (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
BAY @ CIN
57 - 67
Feb 25, 2025
BAY @ CIN
67 - 69
Jan 7, 2025
CIN @ BAY
48 - 68
Mar 14, 2024
CIN @ BAY
56 - 68
Jan 13, 2024
CIN @ BAY
59 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+9.8% more
Cincinnati: 15.6
vs
Baylor: 14.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Cincinnati: 73.1%
vs
Baylor: 66.5%
Blocks (L5)
+30.5% more
Baylor: 4.3
vs
Cincinnati: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+12.7% more
Baylor: 13.9
vs
Cincinnati: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
77.0
57
CIN Score
86.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.8 / 34.8
28.0 / 23.0
Assists
15.6 / 14.2
15.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.3
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 47.2
39.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
73.1 / 66.5
79.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
35.5 / 35.7
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.6
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 13.9
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
CIN
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
BAY
CIN
BAY
ML
67%
22-11
58%
19-14
74%
23-8
53%
17-15
ATS
64%
21-12
58%
19-14
74%
23-8
53%
17-15
TTL
67%
22-11
45%
15-18
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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