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USC

TROJANSUSC

15-5  |  Road

72
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

14-5  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
HAWKEYES
100%
TROJANS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (USC)
TrojansUSC (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

97.7%

Hawkeyes Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USC -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

USC By 1-7 points

8.0%

USC By 8-14 points

18.6%

IOWA By 1-7 points

1.7%

IOWA By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
USC
51
IOWA
Simulated Score
72
USC
78
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 USC @ IOWA 72 - 73
Jan 14, 2025 IOWA @ USC 89 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +29.9% more
USC: 39.2 vs Iowa: 27.5
Blocks (L5) +23.2% more
USC: 4.2 vs Iowa: 3.3
Steals (L5) +36.0% more
Iowa: 6.2 vs USC: 4.5
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Iowa: 10.8 vs USC: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USC Score 71.0 72
IOWA Score 51.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 22.1 32.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.2 / 13.4 11.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.2 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.2 / 42.5 42.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 65.6 86.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 27.5 / 39.2 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.5 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 8.6 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -3.5
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.5
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
USC
IOWA
USC
ML
59% 22-15
52% 16-15
78% 28-8
58% 18-13
ATS
76% 28-9
68% 21-10
78% 28-8
58% 18-13
TTL
57% 21-16
68% 21-10
100% 36-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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