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SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

13-7  |  Road

80
FINAL
Wed, Jan 28 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

12-8  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
BEARKATS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

98.6%

Bears Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

SHSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

MOST By 1-7 points

1.1%

MOST By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
77
SAM HOUSTON
55
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
69
SAM HOUSTON
73
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MOST @ SHSU 81 - 86
Jan 28, 2026 SHSU @ MOST 80 - 71
Dec 9, 2023 SHSU @ MOST 60 - 69
Nov 17, 2021 MOST @ SHSU 77 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.1% more
Sam Houston: 19.7 vs Missouri State: 13.1
Steals (L5) +22.4% more
Sam Houston: 7.7 vs Missouri State: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +8.6% more
Sam Houston: 2.2 vs Missouri State: 2.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Sam Houston: 39.6% vs Missouri State: 33.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 77.0 80
MOST Score 55.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 39.6 40.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.1 / 19.7 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.2 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 49.7 48.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 57.5 61.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 36.0 / 37.4 28.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.7 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 11.2 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
MOST
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
SHSU
MOST
SHSU
ML
65% 22-12
55% 18-15
62% 21-13
74% 23-8
ATS
68% 23-11
64% 21-12
62% 21-13
74% 23-8
TTL
44% 15-19
48% 16-17
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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