NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
6-13 | Road
67
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
17-3 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
100%
DEMONS
--
LUMBERJACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Northwestern State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NWST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
NWST By 1-7 points
10.7%
NWST By 8-14 points
21.6%
SFA By 1-7 points
2.7%
SFA By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
86
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Stephen F. Austin
68
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
65
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Stephen F. Austin
78
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Demons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lumberjacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Demons (-14)
Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Lumberjacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.0
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u142.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
NWST @ SFA
67 - 69
Dec 31, 2025
SFA @ NWST
74 - 64
Feb 15, 2025
SFA @ NWST
70 - 68
Jan 25, 2025
NWST @ SFA
57 - 54
Nov 13, 2023
SFA @ NWST
96 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+23.6% more
Northwestern State: 11.3
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 8.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.5%
Northwestern State: 77.0%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 71.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.7%
Northwestern State: 50.6%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 47.0%
Blocks (L5)
+43.7% more
Stephen F. Austin: 2.3
vs
Northwestern State: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
86.0
67
SFA Score
68.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 34.7
33.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.7 / 13.1
8.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.6
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 50.6
43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 77.0
61.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 26.4
41.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.0
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 11.3
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SFA
NWST
SFA
NWST
ML
59%
17-12
68%
21-10
79%
23-6
77%
23-7
ATS
59%
17-12
68%
21-10
79%
23-6
77%
23-7
TTL
62%
18-11
39%
12-19
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
