Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Wizards POR @ WSH

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

23-24  |  Road

111
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

10-34  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
WIZARDS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

38.2%

Wizards Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

POR By 1-7 points

21.6%

POR By 8-14 points

10.7%

WSH By 1-7 points

27.2%

WSH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
120
PORTLAND
123
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
114
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wizards (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o232.5 Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 WSH @ POR 88 - 123
Jan 27, 2026 POR @ WSH 111 - 115
Mar 17, 2025 WSH @ POR 97 - 112
Feb 26, 2025 POR @ WSH 129 - 121
Apr 5, 2024 POR @ WSH 108 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +28.8% more
Washington: 26.8 vs Portland: 20.8
Steals (L5) +10.5% more
Washington: 10.2 vs Portland: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
Washington: 82.4% vs Portland: 74.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Washington: 33.8% vs Portland: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 120.0 111
WSH Score 123.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 29.9 44.0 / 37.0
Assists 26.8 / 20.8 27.0 / 19.0
Blocks 5.4 / 5.4 12.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 44.0 41.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 82.4 / 74.1 86.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 45.9 46.0 / 69.0
Steals 10.2 / 9.2 16.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 16.9 14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
POR
WSH
POR
ML
70% 112-49
53% 56-49
47% 39-44
55% 49-40
ATS
69% 111-49-1
62% 65-39-1
47% 39-44
55% 49-40
TTL
74% 119-41-1
56% 58-46-1
100% 83-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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