DETROIT
PISTONSDET
33-11 | Road
109
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
31-15 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
PISTONS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DET By 1-7 points
27.2%
DET By 8-14 points
23.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
18.6%
DEN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Denver
117
DENVER
Simulated Score
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Denver
102
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nuggets (+7)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o215.5
Win
Proj Total: 239.0
D
Sim
u215.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 3, 2026
DEN @ DET
121 - 124
Jan 27, 2026
DET @ DEN
109 - 107
Feb 28, 2025
DEN @ DET
134 - 119
Dec 28, 2024
DET @ DEN
121 - 134
Jan 7, 2024
DET @ DEN
114 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+45.5% more
Detroit: 17.4
vs
Denver: 9.5
Steals (L5)
+39.2% more
Detroit: 12.3
vs
Denver: 7.5
Blocks (L5)
+27.1% more
Detroit: 6.2
vs
Denver: 4.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Detroit: 49.1%
vs
Denver: 43.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
122.0
109
DEN Score
117.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 38.3
34.0 / 19.0
Assists
25.1 / 27.0
22.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.5 / 6.2
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 49.1
48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
84.0 / 76.0
74.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 42.7
49.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.5 / 12.3
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 17.4
15.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DEN
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DET
DEN
DET
ML
54%
57-48
55%
64-53
55%
47-39
49%
47-49
ATS
63%
65-38-2
53%
60-54-3
55%
47-39
49%
47-49
TTL
54%
56-48-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
86-0
100%
96-0
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