Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Thunder NO @ OKC

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

12-36  |  Road

95
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

37-10  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
PELICANS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Oklahoma City)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

9.7%

Thunder Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

NO By 1-7 points

6.8%

NO By 8-14 points

1.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
107
NEW ORLEANS
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
120
NEW ORLEANS
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Pelicans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 NO @ OKC 95 - 104
Nov 17, 2025 OKC @ NO 126 - 109
Nov 2, 2025 NO @ OKC 106 - 137
Apr 13, 2025 OKC @ NO 115 - 100
Feb 10, 2025 NO @ OKC 101 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.1 vs New Orleans: 5.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.8%
Oklahoma City: 49.0% vs New Orleans: 44.2%
Rebounding (L5) +19.4% more
New Orleans: 49.8 vs Oklahoma City: 40.1
Steals (L5) +16.8% more
New Orleans: 8.3 vs Oklahoma City: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 107.0 95
OKC Score 120.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 31.3 34.0 / 25.0
Assists 22.5 / 24.3 25.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.1 / 5.0 9.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 49.0 / 44.2 40.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 78.4 / 79.8 91.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 49.8 53.0 / 54.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.3 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 12.2 16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
NO
OKC
NO
ML
70% 80-34
62% 98-61
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 107-51-1
48% 46-49
58% 48-35
TTL
67% 76-38
75% 119-40
100% 95-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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