TOLEDO
ROCKETSTOL
11-9 | Road
81
AKRON
ZIPSAKR
16-4 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
ZIPS
100%
ROCKETS
--
ZIPS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AKR +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)
TOL By 1-7 points
26.8%
TOL By 8-14 points
18.6%
AKR By 1-7 points
23.0%
AKR By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toledo
85
TOLEDO
Akron
83
AKRON
Simulated Score
Toledo
72
TOLEDO
Akron
75
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Zips
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Zips (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Zips (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u168.5
Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
u168.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
TOL @ AKR
76 - 79
Jan 27, 2026
TOL @ AKR
81 - 91
Mar 14, 2025
TOL @ AKR
90 - 100
Mar 4, 2025
AKR @ TOL
96 - 87
Jan 14, 2025
TOL @ AKR
78 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.6% more
Toledo: 7.0
vs
Akron: 6.2
Blocks (L5)
+10.7% more
Toledo: 3.9
vs
Akron: 3.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Toledo: 83.1%
vs
Akron: 79.3%
Rebounding (L5)
+29.2% more
Akron: 38.9
vs
Toledo: 30.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOL Score
85.0
81
AKR Score
83.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.2 / 37.8
37.0 / 55.0
Assists
17.5 / 14.0
19.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.9
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 47.0
51.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 83.1
79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 30.1
37.0 / 25.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.0
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.6 / 10.2
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
AKR
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +2.0
AKR
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -0.8
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
TOL
AKR
TOL
ML
71%
24-10
48%
16-17
65%
22-12
61%
20-13
ATS
76%
26-8
48%
16-17
65%
22-12
61%
20-13
TTL
59%
20-14
64%
21-12
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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