Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Rebels UNM @ UNLV

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

16-4  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 11:00 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

UNLV

REBELSUNLV

10-9  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
LOBOS --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Mexico)
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 RebelsUNLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

84.1%

Rebels Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNM -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

UNM By 1-7 points

23.0%

UNM By 8-14 points

27.2%

UNLV By 1-7 points

10.7%

UNLV By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
85
NEW MEXICO
75
UNLV
Simulated Score
73
NEW MEXICO
78
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 UNM @ UNLV 89 - 61
Mar 7, 2025 UNLV @ UNM 67 - 81
Jan 25, 2025 UNM @ UNLV 75 - 73
Feb 10, 2024 UNLV @ UNM 80 - 77
Jan 9, 2024 UNM @ UNLV 73 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.2% more
New Mexico: 10.2 vs UNLV: 7.4
Assists (L5) +24.4% more
New Mexico: 15.5 vs UNLV: 11.7
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
New Mexico: 37.7 vs UNLV: 31.3
Turnovers (L5) +11.5% more
UNLV: 12.0 vs New Mexico: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 85.0 89
UNLV Score 75.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 38.9 22.0 / 42.0
Assists 11.7 / 15.5 13.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 43.6 37.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 70.7 76.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 31.3 / 37.7 31.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.4 / 10.2 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 10.7 16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
UNLV
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
UNLV
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
UNM
UNLV
UNM
ML
50% 17-17
57% 21-16
59% 20-14
74% 25-9
ATS
65% 22-12
57% 21-16
59% 20-14
74% 25-9
TTL
62% 21-13
41% 15-22
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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