GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
13-6 | Road
60
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
14-6 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
LOPES
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
LOPES
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
GCU By 1-7 points
24.3%
GCU By 8-14 points
13.7%
NEV By 1-7 points
26.2%
NEV By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Grand Canyon
86
GRAND CANYON
Nevada
87
NEVADA
Simulated Score
Grand Canyon
72
GRAND CANYON
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
NEV @ GCU
84 - 80
Jan 27, 2026
GCU @ NEV
60 - 66
Nov 12, 2022
GCU @ NEV
46 - 59
Dec 11, 2020
NEV @ GCU
77 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.1% more
Nevada: 14.4
vs
Grand Canyon: 10.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.3%
Nevada: 42.2%
vs
Grand Canyon: 30.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Nevada: 46.1%
vs
Grand Canyon: 41.2%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.7%
Nevada: 81.7%
vs
Grand Canyon: 77.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
GCU Score
86.0
60
NEV Score
87.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 30.9
41.0 / 17.0
Assists
14.4 / 10.2
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.8
3.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.1 / 41.2
33.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 77.0
65.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 39.0
42.0 / 43.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.1
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 12.5
9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GCU
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GCU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
GCU
NEV
GCU
ML
62%
23-14
66%
21-11
73%
27-10
68%
21-10
ATS
73%
27-10
72%
23-9
73%
27-10
68%
21-10
TTL
49%
18-19
44%
14-18
100%
37-0
100%
31-0
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