BOISE STATE
BRONCOSBOIS
12-8 | Road
89
SAN JOSÉ STATE
SPARTANSSJSU
6-14 | Home
58
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
SPARTANS
100%
BRONCOS
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Boise State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOIS -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)
BOIS By 1-7 points
12.2%
BOIS By 8-14 points
23.0%
SJSU By 1-7 points
3.3%
SJSU By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boise State
88
BOISE STATE
San José State
71
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
Boise State
61
BOISE STATE
San José State
74
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncos
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spartans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Broncos (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Spartans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
SJSU @ BOIS
84 - 74
Feb 21, 2026
SJSU @ BOIS
69 - 84
Jan 27, 2026
BOIS @ SJSU
89 - 58
Feb 7, 2025
SJSU @ BOIS
52 - 79
Dec 28, 2024
BOIS @ SJSU
73 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+52.5% more
Boise State: 2.8
vs
San José State: 1.3
Assists (L5)
+46.3% more
Boise State: 14.6
vs
San José State: 7.8
Steals (L5)
+26.1% more
Boise State: 6.4
vs
San José State: 4.8
Rebounding (L5)
+18.1% more
Boise State: 33.6
vs
San José State: 27.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score
88.0
89
SJSU Score
71.0
58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.5 / 39.2
36.0 / 31.0
Assists
7.8 / 14.6
10.0 / 23.0
Blocks
1.3 / 2.8
0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
37.9 / 49.4
38.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
73.5 / 80.5
56.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
27.5 / 33.6
20.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.8 / 6.4
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 8.8
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
SJSU
9-24-0
(27.3%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.2
SJSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -6.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +3.8
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4%
Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
BOIS
SJSU
BOIS
ML
73%
24-9
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
ATS
73%
24-9
50%
16-16
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
TTL
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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