Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Mountaineers KSU @ WVU

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

10-10  |  Road

54
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 8:30 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

13-7  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
WILDCATS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (West Virginia)
WildcatsKSU (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

0.0%

Mountaineers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

KSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

KSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

WVU By 1-7 points

0.0%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.4%

AI Model Projected Score
56
KANSAS STATE
97
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
67
KANSAS STATE
74
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 WVU @ KSU 63 - 65
Jan 27, 2026 KSU @ WVU 54 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 WVU @ KSU 60 - 73
Feb 26, 2024 WVU @ KSU 90 - 94
Jan 9, 2024 KSU @ WVU 81 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.2%
West Virginia: 70.2% vs Kansas State: 66.0%
Blocks (L5) +36.6% more
Kansas State: 2.3 vs West Virginia: 1.5
Assists (L5) +25.7% more
Kansas State: 16.7 vs West Virginia: 12.4
Steals (L5) +19.3% more
Kansas State: 5.2 vs West Virginia: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 56.0 54
WVU Score 97.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 37.9 29.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.4 / 16.7 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.3 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 42.6 42.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 70.2 / 66.0 67.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.0 / 32.1 38.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.2 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.8 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
KSU
WVU
KSU
ML
63% 22-13
59% 19-13
76% 26-8
69% 22-10
ATS
60% 21-14
62% 20-12
76% 26-8
69% 22-10
TTL
40% 14-21
47% 15-17
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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