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BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

13-7  |  Road

89
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Stroh Center
View Odds Details →

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

13-7  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
BULLS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Buffalo)
BullsBUF (-3.5) 0 FalconsBGSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

98.6%

Falcons Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-7 points

5.8%

BUF By 8-14 points

15.3%

BGSU By 1-7 points

1.1%

BGSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
85
BUFFALO
63
BOWLING GREEN
Simulated Score
73
BUFFALO
78
BOWLING GREEN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 BUF @ BGSU 89 - 78
Feb 15, 2025 BGSU @ BUF 63 - 59
Jan 14, 2025 BUF @ BGSU 61 - 79
Feb 6, 2024 BUF @ BGSU 73 - 87
Jan 17, 2023 BGSU @ BUF 71 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.8% more
Buffalo: 16.5 vs Bowling Green: 14.0
Blocks (L5) +43.7% more
Bowling Green: 3.6 vs Buffalo: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Bowling Green: 36.1 vs Buffalo: 32.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Bowling Green: 70.7% vs Buffalo: 66.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 85.0 89
BGSU Score 63.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 35.2 35.0 / 54.0
Assists 14.0 / 16.5 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.5 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 46.4 50.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 70.7 / 66.1 60.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 32.2 32.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.9 / 7.4 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 11.9 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
BGSU
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BGSU
BUF
BGSU
BUF
ML
66% 21-11
45% 14-17
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
ATS
72% 23-9
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
45% 14-17
TTL
53% 17-15
48% 15-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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