Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Orange @ Wolfpack SYR @ NCSU

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

12-8  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Lenovo Center
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

WOLFPACKNCSU

14-6  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
ORANGE
0%
📊
WOLFPACK
100%
ORANGE --
WOLFPACK --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Syracuse)
OrangeSYR (-3.5) 0 WolfpackNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orange Cover

99.9%

Wolfpack Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SYR -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)

SYR By 1-7 points

0.6%

SYR By 8-14 points

3.3%

NCSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

NCSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
86
SYRACUSE
54
NC STATE
Simulated Score
73
SYRACUSE
77
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orange Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wolfpack Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orange (-10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Wolfpack (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 SYR @ NCSU 68 - 88
Feb 26, 2025 NCSU @ SYR 60 - 74
Mar 13, 2024 NCSU @ SYR 83 - 65
Feb 20, 2024 SYR @ NCSU 87 - 83
Jan 27, 2024 NCSU @ SYR 65 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.9% more
Syracuse: 11.6 vs NC State: 8.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Syracuse: 47.9% vs NC State: 45.2%
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
NC State: 9.8 vs Syracuse: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.6%
NC State: 77.0% vs Syracuse: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SYR Score 86.0 68
NCSU Score 54.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 36.6 29.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.6 / 13.5 21.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.0 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 47.9 51.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 71.5 83.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 31.2 45.0 / 33.0
Steals 9.8 / 7.6 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 11.6 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
NCSU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SYR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
NCSU Advantage
16-17-1 (48.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
SYR
NCSU
SYR
ML
59% 20-14
78% 25-7
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
ATS
71% 24-10
69% 22-10
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
TTL
71% 24-10
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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