RHODE ISLAND
RAMSURI
12-8 | Road
81
DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
14-6 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
100%
FLYERS
0%
RAMS
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
URI By 1-7 points
15.3%
URI By 8-14 points
5.8%
DAY By 1-7 points
26.2%
DAY By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Rhode Island
59
RHODE ISLAND
Dayton
66
DAYTON
Simulated Score
Rhode Island
68
RHODE ISLAND
Dayton
75
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
URI @ DAY
81 - 76
Feb 26, 2025
DAY @ URI
85 - 77
Jan 20, 2024
URI @ DAY
62 - 96
Jan 25, 2023
DAY @ URI
70 - 75
Feb 14, 2022
DAY @ URI
63 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+41.2% more
Dayton: 13.8
vs
Rhode Island: 9.8
Steals (L5)
+37.8% more
Dayton: 9.1
vs
Rhode Island: 6.6
Blocks (L5)
+19.9% more
Dayton: 5.1
vs
Rhode Island: 4.3
Turnovers (L5)
+19.5% more
Dayton: 12.4
vs
Rhode Island: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
URI Score
59.0
81
DAY Score
66.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 28.4
41.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.8 / 9.8
16.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.3
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 45.4
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.8 / 70.9
76.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
33.9 / 30.9
30.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.1 / 6.6
6.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 10.4
23.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
URI
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.0
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
URI
13-18-1
(41.9%)
Margin: 1.7
ATS +/-: -1.0
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
URI
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4%
Total +/-: -5.9
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
URI
DAY
URI
ML
65%
24-13
62%
20-12
64%
23-13
59%
19-13
ATS
68%
25-12
56%
18-14
64%
23-13
59%
19-13
TTL
57%
21-16
56%
18-14
100%
36-0
100%
32-0
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