Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Commodores UK @ VAN

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

14-6  |  Road

55
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

17-3  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
WILDCATS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Vanderbilt)
WildcatsUK (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

42.1%

Commodores Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

UK By 1-7 points

23.0%

UK By 8-14 points

12.2%

VAN By 1-7 points

26.8%

VAN By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
86
KENTUCKY
88
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
64
KENTUCKY
82
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 VAN @ UK 77 - 91
Jan 27, 2026 UK @ VAN 55 - 80
Feb 19, 2025 VAN @ UK 61 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 UK @ VAN 69 - 74
Mar 6, 2024 VAN @ UK 77 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.3% more
Vanderbilt: 16.1 vs Kentucky: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5) +9.5%
Vanderbilt: 83.0% vs Kentucky: 73.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Vanderbilt: 47.0% vs Kentucky: 42.6%
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Kentucky: 5.8 vs Vanderbilt: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UK Score 86.0 55
VAN Score 88.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 34.4 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.5 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.8 9.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 42.6 40.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 83.0 / 73.5 80.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 37.0 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.9 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 10.1 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
UK
VAN
UK
ML
69% 25-11
71% 25-10
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
ATS
78% 28-8
83% 29-6
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
TTL
58% 21-15
63% 22-13
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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