PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
9-11 | Road
81
UCONN
HUSKIESCONN
19-1 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
HUSKIES
0%
FRIARS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (UConn)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CONN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)
PROV By 1-7 points
0.6%
PROV By 8-14 points
0.1%
CONN By 1-7 points
4.0%
CONN By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
69
PROVIDENCE
UConn
93
UCONN
Simulated Score
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
UConn
80
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Huskies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Huskies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Huskies (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Huskies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 27, 2026
PROV @ CONN
81 - 87
Jan 7, 2026
CONN @ PROV
103 - 98
Mar 1, 2025
CONN @ PROV
75 - 63
Jan 5, 2025
PROV @ CONN
84 - 87
Mar 9, 2024
CONN @ PROV
74 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+108.4% more
UConn: 7.4
vs
Providence: 3.6
Blocks (L5)
+10.6% more
UConn: 4.1
vs
Providence: 3.7
Assists (L5)
+10.4% more
UConn: 15.9
vs
Providence: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Providence: 80.3%
vs
UConn: 73.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
69.0
81
CONN Score
93.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.8 / 35.6
46.0 / 36.0
Assists
15.9 / 14.4
23.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.1 / 3.7
9.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 47.6
45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
73.6 / 80.3
64.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
37.4 / 37.6
37.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.4 / 3.6
8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 11.6
10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
CONN
Advantage
34-6-0
(85.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
CONN
18-22-0
(45.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
PROV
CONN
PROV
ML
76%
29-9
59%
19-13
66%
23-12
67%
20-10
ATS
74%
28-10
50%
16-16
66%
23-12
67%
20-10
TTL
50%
19-19
44%
14-18
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Luke Loucks Opens Up on Recruiting, Offensive Rebounding, and Ro…
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
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