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VIRGINIA

CAVALIERSUVA

16-3  |  Road

100
FINAL
Tue, Jan 27 • 7:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

11-9  |  Home

97
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
CAVALIERS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Notre Dame)
CavaliersUVA (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

2.3%

Fighting Irish Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

UVA By 1-7 points

1.7%

UVA By 8-14 points

0.3%

ND By 1-7 points

8.0%

ND By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
42
VIRGINIA
62
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
58
VIRGINIA
64
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 104.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 27, 2026 UVA @ ND 100 - 97
Jan 25, 2025 ND @ UVA 74 - 59
Jan 31, 2024 ND @ UVA 53 - 65
Dec 30, 2023 UVA @ ND 54 - 76
Feb 18, 2023 ND @ UVA 55 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +54.1% more
Virginia: 4.6 vs Notre Dame: 2.1
Assists (L5) +35.3% more
Virginia: 16.3 vs Notre Dame: 10.6
Turnovers (L5) +13.4% more
Virginia: 11.3 vs Notre Dame: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +12.0% more
Virginia: 42.1 vs Notre Dame: 37.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 42.0 100
ND Score 62.0 97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 34.2 41.0 / 34.0
Assists 10.6 / 16.3 15.0 / 21.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 44.3 48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 74.9 82.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.1 / 42.1 35.0 / 40.0
Steals 4.1 / 3.9 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 11.3 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA Advantage
30-6-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA Advantage
17-17-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +1.0
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
UVA
ND
UVA
ML
65% 20-11
67% 24-12
77% 24-7
72% 26-10
ATS
55% 17-14
75% 27-9
77% 24-7
72% 26-10
TTL
68% 21-10
53% 19-17
100% 31-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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