Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Rockets MEM @ HOU

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

18-25  |  Road

99
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 8:00 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

27-16  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
ROCKETS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Houston)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

21.2%

Rockets Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

MEM By 1-7 points

13.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

4.8%

HOU By 1-7 points

25.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
117
MEMPHIS
125
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
107
MEMPHIS
110
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rockets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rockets (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MEM @ HOU 101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026 HOU @ MEM 119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026 MEM @ HOU 99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025 HOU @ MEM 124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025 HOU @ MEM 119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.5% more
Houston: 9.8 vs Memphis: 6.4
Blocks (L5) +17.9% more
Memphis: 7.6 vs Houston: 6.2
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Memphis: 30.1 vs Houston: 24.8
Free Throw % (L5) +14.6%
Memphis: 83.4% vs Houston: 68.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 117.0 99
HOU Score 125.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 36.8 30.0 / 19.0
Assists 24.8 / 30.1 29.0 / 26.0
Blocks 6.2 / 7.6 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 47.6 45.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 83.4 75.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 45.4 / 45.2 57.0 / 52.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.4 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 17.0 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MEM
HOU
MEM
ML
61% 69-44
57% 59-44
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
ATS
62% 70-43
63% 65-38
59% 51-35
50% 41-41
TTL
51% 58-55
70% 71-31-1
100% 86-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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