Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Celtics POR @ BOS

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

23-23  |  Road

94
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 8:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

28-17  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
CELTICS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Boston)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

4.5%

Celtics Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BOS -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

POR By 1-7 points

3.3%

POR By 8-14 points

0.6%

BOS By 1-7 points

12.2%

BOS By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
107
PORTLAND
124
BOSTON
Simulated Score
105
PORTLAND
118
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Celtics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o225.5 Loss
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Sim u225.5 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 26, 2026 POR @ BOS 94 - 102
Dec 28, 2025 BOS @ POR 108 - 114
Mar 23, 2025 BOS @ POR 129 - 116
Mar 5, 2025 POR @ BOS 118 - 128
Apr 7, 2024 POR @ BOS 107 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.5% more
Boston: 5.2 vs Portland: 4.0
Assists (L5) +17.5% more
Boston: 26.7 vs Portland: 22.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Boston: 36.5% vs Portland: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Boston: 81.7% vs Portland: 77.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 107.0 94
BOS Score 124.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 32.3 38.0 / 25.0
Assists 26.7 / 22.7 24.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.2 / 4.0 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 45.1 / 45.6 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 81.7 / 77.7 61.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 44.2 / 45.9 41.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.4 / 8.4 11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 16.4 17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
POR
BOS
POR
ML
57% 61-46
53% 56-49
53% 47-41
55% 49-40
ATS
59% 61-43-3
62% 65-39-1
53% 47-41
55% 49-40
TTL
56% 60-47
56% 58-46-1
100% 88-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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