INDIANA
PACERSIND
11-35 | Road
116
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
22-25 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
HAWKS
0%
PACERS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
244.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ATL -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
IND By 1-7 points
13.7%
IND By 8-14 points
4.8%
ATL By 1-7 points
25.3%
ATL By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Atlanta
126
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Indiana
115
INDIANA
Atlanta
122
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hawks (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.5
Win
Proj Total: 244.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
ATL @ IND
124 - 129
Jan 26, 2026
IND @ ATL
116 - 132
Oct 31, 2025
ATL @ IND
128 - 108
Mar 8, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 120
Mar 6, 2025
IND @ ATL
118 - 124
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.0% more
Atlanta: 8.1
vs
Indiana: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+27.2% more
Atlanta: 4.4
vs
Indiana: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.7%
Atlanta: 74.7%
vs
Indiana: 67.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.4%
Atlanta: 40.7%
vs
Indiana: 35.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
118.0
116
ATL Score
126.0
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.7 / 35.2
42.0 / 29.0
Assists
30.2 / 29.8
35.0 / 31.0
Blocks
4.4 / 3.4
9.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 44.1
50.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
74.7 / 67.0
94.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.5 / 45.9
46.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.3
11.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 15.1
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
IND
ATL
IND
ML
50%
52-52
48%
47-50
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
ATS
53%
55-48-1
59%
57-40
55%
48-40
54%
45-38
TTL
53%
55-48-1
54%
52-45
100%
88-0
100%
83-0
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