Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Buckeyes PSU @ OSU

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-10  |  Road

78
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

13-6  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
BUCKEYES
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Ohio State)
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

34.5%

Buckeyes Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OSU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

PSU By 1-7 points

20.1%

PSU By 8-14 points

9.3%

OSU By 1-7 points

27.4%

OSU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
PENN STATE
79
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
76
PENN STATE
71
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buckeyes (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 OSU @ PSU 94 - 62
Jan 26, 2026 PSU @ OSU 78 - 84
Jan 30, 2025 OSU @ PSU 83 - 64
Jan 20, 2024 PSU @ OSU 67 - 79
Dec 9, 2023 OSU @ PSU 80 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +209.0% more
Ohio State: 2.6 vs Penn State: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Ohio State: 11.2 vs Penn State: 8.6
Rebounding (L5) +19.6% more
Ohio State: 34.7 vs Penn State: 29.0
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Ohio State: 45.9% vs Penn State: 43.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 75.0 78
OSU Score 79.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 31.1 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 11.7 / 12.1 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.6 / 0.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 43.1 56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 76.9 76.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 29.0 21.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.9 / 5.0 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 8.6 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
OSU Advantage
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
PSU
OSU
PSU
ML
53% 18-16
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
56% 18-14
ATS
59% 20-14
72% 23-9
73% 24-9
56% 18-14
TTL
56% 19-15
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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