Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Spartans MORG @ NORF

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

7-13  |  Road

79
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Joseph G. Echols Hall
View Odds Details →

NORFOLK STATE

SPARTANSNORF

10-12  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
BEARS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Morgan State)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 SpartansNORF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

98.6%

Spartans Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORG -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

MORG By 1-7 points

5.8%

MORG By 8-14 points

15.3%

NORF By 1-7 points

1.1%

NORF By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
74
MORGAN STATE
52
NORFOLK STATE
Simulated Score
68
MORGAN STATE
72
NORFOLK STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 NORF @ MORG 84 - 90
Jan 26, 2026 MORG @ NORF 79 - 78
Mar 14, 2025 MORG @ NORF 55 - 58
Feb 24, 2025 MORG @ NORF 60 - 69
Jan 13, 2025 NORF @ MORG 74 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.3% more
Morgan State: 5.3 vs Norfolk State: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +15.1% more
Morgan State: 39.7 vs Norfolk State: 33.7
Assists (L5) +13.5% more
Morgan State: 15.7 vs Norfolk State: 13.6
Steals (L5) +52.6% more
Norfolk State: 8.7 vs Morgan State: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 74.0 79
NORF Score 52.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 34.9 19.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.6 / 15.7 13.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.3 / 5.3 1.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 52.5 / 44.7 41.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 73.2 59.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 39.7 45.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.7 / 5.7 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 12.7 9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
NORF Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
NORF
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: 2.6 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
NORF
19-9-0
O: 67.9% / U: 32.1% Total +/-: +4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NORF
MORG
NORF
MORG
ML
67% 20-10
50% 14-14
71% 20-8
58% 14-10
ATS
63% 19-11
50% 14-14
72% 21-8
58% 14-10
TTL
60% 18-12
50% 14-14
100% 29-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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