UTAH
MAMMOTHUTA
27-20-4 | Road
0
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
32-14-4 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Karel Vejmelka
#70 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka | None-None | 2.00 | 0.931 | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00
GAA
Ldr 0.00
0.931
Save %
Ldr 1.000
--
SO
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MAMMOTH
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
MAMMOTH
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
UTA By 1 goal
19.7%
UTA By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
4
UTAH
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Utah
4
UTAH
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mammoth
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mammoth
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Mammoth (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 26, 2026
UTA @ TB
0 - 2
Nov 2, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 2
Mar 27, 2025
UTA @ TB
0 - 8
Mar 22, 2025
TB @ UTA
4 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+22.1% more
Utah: 13.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+14.5% more
Utah: 21.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.1
Takeaways (L5)
+8.4% more
Utah: 4.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTA Score
4.0
0
TB Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.7 / 13.7
20.0 / 8.0
Faceoff %
51.7 / 52.4
48.1 / 51.9
Hits
18.1 / 21.2
18.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
24.2 / 25.4
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.4 / 29.1
29.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.1 / 4.4
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
UTA
TB
UTA
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
ATS
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
TTL
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
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