Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Blue Devils LOU @ DUKE

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

14-5  |  Road

52
FINAL
Mon, Jan 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Cameron Indoor Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

18-1  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
100%
CARDINALS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
181.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

Blue Devils Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

LOU By 1-7 points

27.2%

LOU By 8-14 points

23.0%

DUKE By 1-7 points

18.6%

DUKE By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
LOUISVILLE
88
DUKE
Simulated Score
78
LOUISVILLE
65
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 181.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 26, 2026 LOU @ DUKE 52 - 83
Jan 6, 2026 DUKE @ LOU 84 - 73
Mar 15, 2025 LOU @ DUKE 62 - 73
Dec 8, 2024 DUKE @ LOU 76 - 65
Feb 28, 2024 LOU @ DUKE 59 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +10.4% more
Louisville: 11.8 vs Duke: 10.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Louisville: 37.5% vs Duke: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Louisville: 78.0% vs Duke: 74.2%
Steals (L5) +38.7% more
Duke: 9.3 vs Louisville: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 93.0 52
DUKE Score 88.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 37.5 35.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.0 / 17.2 14.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.4 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.4 / 48.5 51.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 78.0 72.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 39.9 47.0 / 26.0
Steals 9.3 / 6.7 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.8 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
LOU
DUKE
LOU
ML
71% 27-11
63% 22-13
73% 24-9
71% 24-10
ATS
79% 30-8
71% 25-10
73% 24-9
71% 24-10
TTL
47% 18-20
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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