MIAMI
HEATMIA
24-22 | Road
111
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
27-18 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
SUNS
0%
HEAT
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MIA By 1-7 points
10.7%
MIA By 8-14 points
3.3%
PHX By 1-7 points
23.0%
PHX By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
114
MIAMI
Phoenix
124
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Suns (-5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Suns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o225.5
Loss
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u225.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
MIA @ PHX
111 - 102
Jan 13, 2026
PHX @ MIA
121 - 127
Dec 7, 2024
PHX @ MIA
111 - 121
Nov 6, 2024
MIA @ PHX
112 - 115
Jan 29, 2024
PHX @ MIA
118 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.4% more
Phoenix: 15.1
vs
Miami: 13.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.8%
Phoenix: 87.1%
vs
Miami: 77.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Phoenix: 37.7%
vs
Miami: 35.4%
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Miami: 31.1
vs
Phoenix: 24.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
114.0
111
PHX Score
124.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 35.4
20.0 / 26.0
Assists
24.8 / 31.1
14.0 / 21.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.2 / 44.5
37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
87.1 / 77.2
81.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 51.3
56.0 / 59.0
Steals
9.7 / 9.0
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 13.5
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIA
PHX
MIA
ML
57%
60-45
48%
46-50
51%
45-43
59%
48-34
ATS
58%
59-43-3
51%
49-47
51%
45-43
59%
48-34
TTL
59%
61-42-2
59%
57-39
100%
88-0
100%
82-0
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